Thursday, July 31, 2008

This recession is Bunk!!!!!!!!

Economic recession and expansion happen constantly. Sometimes it's up, sometimes it's down, but rarely if ever does it just stay stagnant. The pundits however are talking doom and gloom. The optimists are talking silver lining. The rest of them are mood driven.

The fact is that recession is a state of mind. According to the data we had one quarter of minute contraction last year. Every one since has shown growth. Thats right Growth, as in expansion. The opposite of recession. Why then does the media keep using the R word??? I have an answer. They did it once before and it worked. The media in general few would argue tends to trend towards one particular political influence. This is an election year folks. They discount the party in control of congress, who can actually change things, and focus on the President, who cannot change things without congress. This my friends is a classic case of smoke and mirrors. Down is up, up is sideways and in is the new out. I don't care which party you favor or which candidate. It really does not matter as Congress is the key, not the figure head in the White House. I refuse to participate!

That's right. I refuse to participate in your non-recession! You sell, I'll buy! If you're smart, you will buy too. The facts remain these. Prices are stable for the most part and oil is dropping. It will drop much further but it's not your best investment. Conversely, now is likely the best time to buy your company's future. Old school managers are thinking about downsizings as they fear the next two months. They don't think about the next six months as the election passes and the rebound hits. It does not matter who wins, the mere fact that it's over will cause renewed optimism. The smart managers will already have their people in place to capture this optimism, they will have obtained those well positioned people from the less forward thinking managers who will be sitting on the sidelines as you run past them in November.

Much like a stock investor, this is not the time to hibernate. There is a whole lot going on while the bear is sleeping that he is unaware of. See, the sleeping bear missed the hunter setting up the blind outside of his cave. He's not however gonna miss the inevitable Kablaam in the spring when he emerges from his slumber to find himself the one on the losing end of the contest.

The key question then is are you the hunter, or the bear?

1 comment:

SBVOR said...

The data say:
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No recession.
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